Image: Oskar Kadaksoo, Unsplash

Most Southeast Asian countries can begin to integrate higher shares of solar and wind energy this decade without requiring major system overhauls, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Rapid urbanization, population growth, industrialization and rising living standards all contributed to electricity demand growth exceeding 7% in southeast Asia last year, one of the fastest rates globally and almost double the global average.

IEA’s report says Southeast Asia is well positioned to meet this surging demand using variable renewable energy (VRE) sources of solar and wind. It adds that there is 20 TW of untapped solar and wind potential across the region, around 55 times the region’s current total generation capacity.

In the report’s forward, Sue-Em Tan, Head of the IEA Regional Cooperation Centre, writes that integrating solar and wind energy is both urgent and essential as the region grows more dependent on fossil fuel imports.

“Over the coming decade, renewable energy is expected to meet over one third of Southeast Asia’s electricity demand growth,” Tan added. “Achieving this will require investments in system flexibility, grid modernization, interconnections and well-aligned market and policy frameworks.”

The report says most of the ten countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) can accelerate solar and wind integration by learning from two decades of global experience and without major system overhauls.

Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand all currently operate in phase one or two of the IEA’s VRE integration framework, meaning solar and wind installations have no to little impact on the existing power system. IEA says integration challenges are manageable at this level, with most of these countries expected to remain in this phase until the end of the decade.

Vietnam is currently the only ASEAN member to currently operate at VRE integration phase three, where solar and wind installations begin to determine the operation of the power system. More Southeast Asian nations are expected to reach this phase by 2035 and will begin to face greater flexibility needs due to changes in net load patterns driven by the variable output of solar PV.

Elsewhere, IEA’s report stresses that modern grids and regional interconnections will be essential for the secure and affordable integration of renewables. Grid infrastructure must evolve in sync with growing demand, increased solar and wind penetration and the expansion of regional power trade, the agency says, which it adds will require coordinated action at both national and regional levels.

The modernization of national grids is cited as particularly crucial to avoid grid congestion and lengthy connection queues for new projects. IEA also says that grid infrastructure investments must be balanced with affordability to maintain both public support and political feasibility. Countries can manage this relationship by optimizing existing assets, implementing competitive procurements and diversifying financing sources.

With the ASEAN nations at different stages of readiness for renewables deployment, IEA’s report offers recommendations split across early-stage, mid-stage and high-readiness countries.

The countries at early-stage readiness for solar and wind energy, namely Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, should focus on enhancing energy efficiency regulations, establishing grid codes and co-ordinating government-utility planning. Meanwhile, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, countries deemed at mid-stage readiness for renewables, should develop flexible procurement mechanisms, enhance grid infrastructure, reform system planning and invest in a broader range of flexibility resources.

The Philippines and Singapore are the only two ASEAN countries currently ready to prepare for deeper system transformation, IEA says. It recommends these nations prepare flexibility deployment roadmaps, the advancement of grid services, market and regulatory reform and cross-sector planning.

IEA’s report will be presented at the ASEAN Energy Business Forum on October 15, to be held in Malaysia’s capital, Kuala Lumpur.